Should you buy/sell/hold Paytm shares after Q1FY26 earnings? Here is what analysts recommend


Paytm Share Price Target, Paytm Shares: One97 Communications, a parent firm of Paytm, on Tuesday (July 22) reported a its first-ever net profit at Rs 122.5 crore for the first quarter of the FY26. After this performance what should investors do with the the company’s stock? Should you buy, sell, or accumulate it? Here is what brokerages recommend

Analysts at global brokerages–Jefferies, Citi, Bernstein, Macquarie, BofA, UBS–have showed mixed views on the stock and expected up to 18.69 per cent potential in the future term from Tuesday’s closing.

Two brokerages, Jefferies and Citi have recommended buying One97 Communications’ shares for targets of Rs 1,250 and Rs 1,215, respectively.

According to Jefferies, during the quarter the company has posted better-than-expected Q1 EBITDA of Rs 70 crore. The brokerage attributed the beat partly to lower DLG (Digital Lending Guarantee) costs—although it noted these benefits may be transitionary—and operational leverage from modest growth in MTU (monthly transacting users) and GMV (gross merchandise value), up 3 per cent and 6 per cent quarter-on-quarter respectively. However, it cautioned that contribution margins could settle slightly lower over the next two to three quarters.

While, Citi said that the consumer segment as still relatively weak. It also revised its forecasts downward by removing UPI-MDR revenues from its model, acknowledging regulatory limitations on that front.

Meanwhile, another brokerage Bernstein has an ‘outperform’ rating with a share price target of Rs 1,100, suggests 4.45 per cent upside. According to the brokerage, Paytm’s first net profit was a significant and clean milestone. It also expressed confidence that profitability is sustainable in the coming quarters, calling it an important signal of business maturity.

In contrast, Macquarie has maintained an ‘underperform’ rating on the Paytm stock with a target of Rs 760, indicating 27.83 per cent downside from Tuesday’s closing. The brokerage acknowleded that operating leverage had driven profitability in Q1, analysts expressed concern about the shift from DLG-backed loan distribution to a non-DLG model and the muted performance of the personal loan segment.

“Any earnings upside would likely depend on a recovery in personal loan disbursements,” according to Macquarie analysts.

While acknowledging that operating leverage had driven profitability in Q1, Macquarie expressed concern about the shift from DLG-backed loan distribution to a non-DLG model and the muted performance of the personal loan segment. The firm suggested that any earnings upside would likely depend on a recovery in personal loan disbursements.

BofA Securities has maintained a ‘neutral’ rating raising share price target to Rs 1,160 from Rs 1,005. The brokerage noted that while revenues were in line, the company delivered a strong profitability beat.

“The management’s guidance of 50 per cent contribution margin and 15–20 per cent EBITDA margin was seen as encouraging, and to raise valuation multiples in its sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) model,” according to BofA.

Similarly, UBS has also maintained a ‘neutral’ rating with a target price of Rs 1,100, citing cost controls were stronger than expected, though the payments business had a modest quarter with flat industry GMV share. The brokerage also observed reduced disclosures in the financial services segment but remained positive on merchant lending, It also pointed to the company’s long-term margin guidance as a key area to watch.

Paytm Q1 Results

Here is the highlights of Paytm’s Q1FY26 earnings:

  • Paytm Q1 net profit: Rs 122.5 crore
  • Paytm Q1 EBITDA: Rs 72 crore
  • Paytm Q1 revenue from operations: Rs 1,917.5 crore
  • Paytm Q1 net payment revenue: Rs 529 crore
  • Paytm Q1 total payment services revenue: Rs 1,110 crore
  • Paytm Q1 gross merchandise value (GMV): Rs 5.39 lakh crore
  • Paytm Q1 financial revenue: Rs 561 crore



Source link

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *