How long is the new ball really new?
One of the earliest calls a batter must make in a Test innings is deciding when the “new ball” can safely be treated as old. Get it right, and it sets up the chance for a big score. Get it wrong, and wickets can tumble in a heap.
The arrival of the 11th over is often seen as a key early checkpoint — the point at which the worst is presumed to have passed. But the numbers suggest this comfort may be illusory.
In 2025, batters have averaged just 28.47 in overs 11–20, with a dismissal every 52.1 deliveries. Both figures are the second lowest recorded since 2010, behind only 2024. These aren’t blips — they continue a post-2018 decline.
And the drop is most acute in this exact phase. Compared to other 10-over blocks in the first 40 overs of a Test innings, overs 11–20 have seen the sharpest fall in both average and balls per dismissal across the last three World Test Championship cycles.
What’s changed?
A deeper look at the types of deliveries bowled offers clues. There’s been a consistent decline in straight balls and a marked increase in both seam and swing movement during this phase. Batters in overs 11–20 now face more deliveries that do something — that test their judgment, technique, and trust in bounce.
The result? A spike in false shots. In 2025, the false shot percentage in overs 11–20 stands at 19 per cent — the highest in the last 15 years. This is a phase of play that has become quietly hostile, even as batters may perceive they’ve “seen off” the new ball.
Who’d be a number 3?
Few Test positions invite as much scrutiny — or as little reward — as the number three. Ask Ollie Pope.
Since volunteering for the role under Ben Stokes despite minimal prior experience, Pope has become a lightning rod for criticism. His overall returns haven’t been poor, but they haven’t silenced doubts either.
He’s not alone. The No. 3 spot has become a revolving door across teams. In 2025, the average for number 3 batters is 32.32, with a dismissal every 58.1 balls — the second lowest and the lowest, respectively, since 2010.
Filter out outliers — like Wiaan Mulder’s unbeaten 367 vs Zimbabwe — and things look worse. Between the start of the calendar year and July 1, the average drops to 28.56, and the dismissal rate to 54.2.
And the churn shows. Of the 10 batters who played at least 10 innings at number 3 during the 2023–25 WTC, only three — Kane Williamson, Ollie Pope, and Dinesh Chandimal — held that role in their team’s most recent Test. Four were shuffled to new positions (Shubman Gill, Shan Masood, Kusal Mendis, Najmul Hossain Shanto), and the remaining three (Marnus Labuschagne, Kirk McKenzie, Keacy Carty) dropped altogether.
Teams have tried everything: moving openers down, sending in pinch-hitters, recalling domestic heavyweights, or just promoting whoever is next in line. That lack of clarity may reflect confusion about what number 3 even demands in modern Test cricket.
India, for instance, has used five different batters at No. 3 since the start of the 2024–25 Border-Gavaskar Trophy: Devdutt Padikkal, Shubman Gill, KL Rahul, B Sai Sudharsan, and Karun Nair. Of those, only Sudharsan has crossed the 50-mark, with a score of 61 in Manchester.
This instability is made worse by timing. Since 2019, the average dismissal rate for openers in WTC games is 64.3 balls — just shy of 11 overs. In the 2023–25 cycle, that’s down to 54 balls (roughly 9 overs). Number 3s now often walk in during one of the toughest phases of the game — overs 11 to 20.
So, the modern number 3 faces a double bind: often inexperienced or out of position, and forced to begin the innings just as batting becomes more difficult.
Perhaps the real question isn’t who wants to be number 3 — but who’d still dare to be one?
(Numbers accurate to July 12)
