Indian stock market participants will closely monitor companies’ first-quarter earnings, progress in US tariff talks, key macroeconomic data and other global cues in the trading session starting from Monday, according to experts.
“Looking ahead, two key factors will drive the next directional move: Q1 Earnings Season – Investors will closely track corporate results for signs of margin stability, demand recovery, and management commentary, especially amid a mixed macro backdrop. Progress on the Tariff Front – Any clarity or resolution on global tariff-related tensions could significantly influence risk sentiment and capital flows,” said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research, SBI Securities.
“In the upcoming week, markets will closely track key macroeconomic data releases from both India and the United States,” said a market note by the Bajaj Broking Research team.
On July 14, India will release wholesale price index inflation and consumer price index (CPI) data for June, which will provide insight into domestic inflation trends and could influence RBI’s monetary policy expectations.
From the US, focus will be on CPI (year-on-year) for June on July 15, followed by PPI (MoM) and industrial production (MoM) on July 16, which will provide a broader picture of inflation pressures and manufacturing activity.
The week will conclude with initial and continuing unemployment claims in the US on July 17, which are key indicators of the health of the labour market. Together, these data will play a key role in shaping investor sentiment, especially amid speculation of global interest rate cuts.
Commenting on investor sentiment, Shah of SBI Securities said the market may remain range bound and stock-specific movements will dictate the trend.
“A breakout from this phase will likely be triggered by either strong earnings surprises or positive developments on the global trade front,” he added.
The benchmark Nifty index remained stuck in a narrow range of 200 points in the first four trading sessions of the week, reflecting indecisiveness among market participants. But the calm was broken on Friday.
The index opened with a sharp decline, moved below its consolidation zone, and faced renewed selling pressure, indicating that sentiment is starting to tilt bearish.
“What’s more alarming is that Nifty has now slipped below its crucial 20-day EMA, which has also begun to slope downward — a classic sign of emerging weakness. The momentum indicators aren’t painting a comforting picture either,” Shah added.
Market analysts say macroeconomic and earnings uncertainties are shaking investors’ confidence.
Amid uncertainties, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) remained net buyers last week, pumping in a net sum of Rs 5,260 crore, according to data released by the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL).
Indian stock markets closed in the negative territory on Friday due to a sluggish start to the first quarter earnings season and increased tariff threat by the US.
At Friday’s close, the Sensex was down 689.81 points or 0.83 per cent at 82,500.47, and the Nifty was down 205.40 points or 0.81 per cent at 25,149.85.
With tariff uncertainty rising globally and Q1 earnings just getting started–kicked off by TCS on Thursday–markets are entering a critical phase.
Analysts say investors are now monitoring cues from margin pressures, global demand scenario and forward guidance from companies.
With the inputs of ANI
