The monsoon arrival in Delhi may break a 16-year record as it could be the earliest onset of rains since 2013. Back then, monsoon arrived in the city on June 16. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), favourable weather conditions have pushed the monsoon deep into Ladakh, large parts of Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, and some areas in Punjab.

Over the next two days, it is expected to advance further into Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, and the remaining parts of western Uttar Pradesh and the northwestern hills.

Rainfall Expected To Intensify

The IMD has issued a forecast of heavy to very heavy rains across northwest India, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and Konkan & Goa through June 26. Madhya Pradesh may see extremely heavy showers on June 23 and 24. Meanwhile, the Northeast is bracing for three more days of intense rainfall, which is expected to ease slightly thereafter.

This year’s southwest monsoon began its journey from Kerala on May 24, its earliest onset since 2009. By May 29, it had already covered Mumbai, central Maharashtra, and the entire Northeast. However, the advance paused from May 29 to June 16, causing an early dry spell and triggering heatwaves in many parts of north and central India.

The monsoon regained pace between June 16 and 18, aided by two low-pressure systems, one over West Bengal and another over Gujarat. These systems helped push the rains further north, setting up a possible early arrival in Delhi, compared to previous years: June 28 (2023), June 25 (2022), June 30 (2021), and July 13 (2020).

What IMD Says About Overall Rainfall

The IMD had earlier forecast that India would receive 106% of the long-period average rainfall (87 cm) for the June-September season. Most of the country is likely to see above-normal rainfall, with exceptions in Ladakh, parts of Himachal Pradesh, the Northeast, and scattered areas of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Odisha. Some pockets in Punjab, Haryana, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu may witness below-normal showers.