The US has also targeted India with increased tariffs on its oil imports from Russia, to which Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun reacted by saying, “China’s opposition to the abuse of tariffs is consistent and clear”. Its state media websites also came out strongly against the US action, with some advice for India against relying on it.

There was also commentary on a joint India-Philippines naval exercise in the South China Sea, a region that has seen increasing disputes in the last few years. What was new, however, was India and the Philippines coming together to send a signal to China.

Finally, after the visits of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval to China in recent months, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will likely also travel to China soon.

Here is a closer look at these developments:

1. Putin dials Xi

The leaders of China and Russia spoke at a time when the US is targeting countries that have close ties with Russia. Although whether this actually has to do with Russia has been contested, with several nations (including India) currently negotiating trade deals with the US, and the country seemingly looking to leverage its position.

UPSHOT: Russia and China have, in their own ways, dealt with the US under Trump amid their larger geopolitical rivalries. While Trump previously spoke positively about Putin and was critical of China and its economy, there has been an interchange of sorts, recently.

China and the US have been communicating on tariffs to secure a trade deal, with China using its monopoly on processing rare earth minerals (which are crucial to most key industries) to its advantage. On the other hand, Trump has become critical of Putin, saying he had “gone absolutely CRAZY” in a Truth Social post. One Bloomberg columnist recently said, “China, it appears, is too big for Trump to bully now”.

Most countries are still developing a playbook on dealing with the swiftly changing policies of the Trump administration. PM Modi also spoke to Brazilian President Lula Da Silva on Thursday, with the country slapped with 50% US tariffs as well. The president also told Reuters he would initiate a conversation among the BRICS countries (including India, Russia and China) on tackling Trump’s tariffs.

2. China comments on India-Philippines in South China Sea

The Philippines’ President Ferdinand Marcos Jr visited India this week for the first time since he came to power in 2022. Both countries’ navies held their first joint exercise close to the Scarborough Shoal, which has previously figured in the China-Philippines dispute.

In an official declaration on elevating the bilateral relations to a “strategic partnership”, two mentions of the South China Sea issue were made. The first reiterated a 2016 international tribunal award on the dispute. Essentially, the tribunal had ruled that “certain sea areas are within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines, because those areas are not overlapped by any possible entitlement of China”. China rejected it.

Second, it expressed “concern for the situation in the South China Sea particularly with regard to coercive and aggressive actions that impact on regional peace and stability, and calling on relevant parties to exercise self-restraint…” This was a clear reference to China.

UPSHOT: The South China Sea, apart from its strategic value, sees huge volumes of trade passing through, and has reserves of fish and hydrocarbons. It has also become a theatre for Chinese aggression, with Southeast Asian nations attempting to counter it.

For India and the Philippines, which have traditionally not enjoyed close ties (something PM Modi also acknowledged in his address to the Philippines’ president), this presents an opportunity for collaboration. India has unresolved boundary issues with China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), and sees its assertions in the Indian Ocean Region. Marcos has also shown a greater interest in responding to China than his predecessors.

Multiple reports in the Communist Party mouthpiece, Global Times, spoke of why the exercise won’t yield the “desired” effect, called the drills “more symbolic than substantive”, and that it amounted to a third party interfering in the dispute. On Friday, a spokesperson “urged the Philippines to stop its provocations and propaganda, stop ganging up with others to stir up trouble in the South China Sea”.

3. PM Modi’s potential China visit

A visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely, according to several reports, as China holds the presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) this year. Rajnath Singh, Jaishankar and Doval also visited China to attend other SCO events.

India, Pakistan, Russia, and several Central Asian nations are part of the SCO, which was created as a regional security cooperation organisation in 2001. The summit will be in the city of Tianjin from August 31 to September 1. If the PM visits, he will also hold bilateral talks with Xi Jinping, The Indian Express reported.

UPSHOT: The two leaders last met in October 2024 on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia, and PM Modi last visited China in 2019, also for an SCO meeting. Since then, the ties have seen a border confrontation in 2020, a pandemic that led to mutual flight and visa restrictions, and other factors that led to a deterioration.

The visit also comes as several steps have been taken since the Russia meeting to normalise ties, such as India opening up visas for Chinese tourists.

A Global Times report also noted that at present, both sides would also hope to seize the opportunity of the “75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties to achieve greater progress in China-India relations.” It cautioned against “some Western media outlets” which interpreted the visit as an attempt to “hedge against” the US.

“Such a view is rather one-sided. Defending free trade and countering unilateral tariffs is the shared will of most countries in the world today. From the perspective of China, China-India cooperation is not aimed at any third party,” it added.